Template:Modeling World Energy - A Proposal
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Modeling World Energy - A Proposal
1) What's the problem? - the positive relationship between worldwide standards of living, industrial / agricultureal production, and energy consumption; why oil is a key and irreplaceable fossil fuel.2) How much oil is down there? - why it's hard to know, and why there is so much uncertainty and consequent disagreement.3) At what rate can we extract oil from underground? for how long? - description of Hubbert's Peak, Peak Oil, and reasons for even more uncertainty and disagreement.4) What are the consequences of Peak Oil? - range of opinions, from "no problem" cornucopians to "die off" pessimists. Why is there so much uncertainty? Is there anything that can clarify the outlook for our energy future?5) Things we can do: (a) acknowledge our energy problem and raise awareness; (b) acquire better energy information; (c) undertake a project to model world energy.This presentation focuses on (c).6) What are the benefits of a world energy model? - helping raise awareness of consequences; provide a decision-making tool to nations and policy makers7) Foundation of a good energy model: good information (energy database) and a rigorous ERoEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) methodology. Every energy source has an energy cost; the model must observe the laws of physics and thermodynamics.8) Energy Model in use: run scenarios of possible energy futures; answer the question "can we get there from here?"9) Attributes of a good energy model: accessibility and transparency. Examples of other modeling efforts. Some ideas for how to start the energy modeling project with creation of a software-readable energy database.10) Models for development of a huge project like this - initial design team of 4-10 people, 2 years, $1M - then international Internet collaboration, similar to Linux and Open Sofware concept, to maintain and improve the model.
