Modeling World Energy - A Proposal

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Abstract

1) What's the problem? - the positive relationship between worldwide standards of living, industrial / agricultureal production, and energy consumption; why oil is a key and irreplaceable fossil fuel.

2) How much oil is down there? - why it's hard to know, and why there is so much uncertainty and consequent disagreement.

3) At what rate can we extract oil from underground? for how long? - description of Hubbert's Peak, Peak Oil, and reasons for even more uncertainty and disagreement.

4) What are the consequences of Peak Oil? - range of opinions, from "no problem" cornucopians to "die off" pessimists. Why is there so much uncertainty? Is there anything that can clarify the outlook for our energy future?

5) Things we can do: (a) acknowledge our energy problem and raise awareness; (b) acquire better energy information; (c) undertake a project to model world energy.

This presentation focuses on (c).

6) What are the benefits of a world energy model? - helping raise awareness of consequences; provide a decision-making tool to nations and policy makers

7) Foundation of a good energy model: good information (energy database) and a rigorous ERoEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) methodology. Every energy source has an energy cost; the model must observe the laws of physics and thermodynamics.

8) Energy Model in use: run scenarios of possible energy futures; answer the question "can we get there from here?"

9) Attributes of a good energy model: accessibility and transparency. Examples of other modeling efforts. Some ideas for how to start the energy modeling project with creation of a software-readable energy database.

10) Models for development of a huge project like this - initial design team of 4-10 people, 2 years, $1M - then international Internet collaboration, similar to Linux and Open Sofware concept, to maintain and improve the model.

Description

With crude oil topping $50 a barrel, the "mainstream press" is beginning to provide air time to a concept and a group of its supporters who were previously relegated to a lunatic fringe, or cult: Peak Oil may be a lot closer than you think. Their ideas, usually founded on reasonable geological science, are gaining credence and converts.

This presentation first examines two main questions: (1) how much is down there? and (2) at what rate can we extract it in the future? Then, it looks at the implications of the answers to those questions - implications that, in the pessimistic scenario, could spell the end of industrial society and reverse the trajectory of globalization in the not-so-distant future.

Given that possibility, this civilization should be taking extraordinary measures to prepare for it. Yet, very little is being done.

The presentation advocates important first steps: (1)acknowledge the problem and raise awareness; (2) begin an accelerated planning process that sets a clear direction, based on a solid scientific foundation. Key to that preparation must be a very thorough understanding of what the energy alternatives are, and what mix of those alternatives might be developed to assure the best outcome (energy per capita, environmental damage, sustainability) for the inhabitants of this planet.

An important component of the planning process must be a means of modeling world energy. This will enable us to project the outcome of energy decisions we make in coming years, running scenarios (as in Limits to Growth) that show us the consequences of good and bad decisions - before we make them. Failing to do this could lead to a disastrous outcome - developing some "alternatives" can use more energy than we will ever get back from them, for example.

The requirements for a useful model are explored and its characteristics described: accessibility and transparency are high on the list of desirable attributes. Once developed, a worldwide network of contributors - following the successful model of Linux and Open Software development - could continue to expand and improve the global energy model, enhancing its utility for energy decision makers around the world.

Speakers

• Richard Lawrence

Schedule

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